MSNBC – NBC poll: Pessimism not sticking to president: “But if the presidential election were held today, Bush would still edge Kerry by 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll, which was conducted for NBC and the Journal by Hart/Teeter Associates of Washington, which reported that the survey had a 3 percentage-point margin of sampling error. “What happens if we find Bin Laden? What happens if we find Weapons of Mass Destruction? What happens if Iraq becomes more peaceful? If all the good economic news, gets through? Kerry is not keeping up now. Good news will be fatal. Kerry will lose almost 40 states. He will get 44% of the vote (about Clinton’s first win with no Perot). How does a Democrat get over 50% of the vote? No one has done it in ages. The next time someone tells you this election will be close, ask them why they think being an incumbent will NOT add one or two percent to the Bush vote total from the last election. How does Bush lose? He carries every state he won last time (maybe not New Hampshire, Florida) and is now competitive in a score of other states. Ask your critic how Kerry gets the total electoral votes he needs. It is hard to find a scenario.
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