I remember pulling for Reagan so hard that on election night the couch was shaking from my case of teen nerves. What made me so nervous? Even though Reagan was leading in the polls, smart people kept talking about the big reasons polls were wrong. I believed every single thing, or feared every single thing, said by Carter spin guys. Reagan went on to win in a land slide.Bush will not win in a land slide. He leads in the polls, but now we are being told about undecideds, swing states, and new voters. Here are my four things to ignore in a race:1. Candidates who say they have new voters not showing up in non-partisan polls. Candidates who rely on new voters end up like Howard Dean in Iowa. Give me unions, evangelicals, or minority get out the vote machines, they have a track record of voting. . . let’s leave the mystery voters alone.2. Candidates who say their “internals” are much different than national polls.3. Candidates who ignore the trend and stick with this weeks numbers with almost two weeks to go. (“But some polls show X still up/close in Ohio!” when X is fading nationally. Ohio’s polls will follow.)4. Hate never wins. If so, Dole would have been president. Never bet on the man loved for being Not the Other Guy.So: Bush will win. Probably.One caveat:There is the “October surprise.” That is real. If Bush had told the truth about his DUI before the Democrats outed him on election weekend, he would have won a close race. There would have been no hanging chads and Al Gore highly paid cads.However, Bush is a known man. New personal information? Not going to happen about Bush, but perhaps about Kerry. In the same way, good news (major terrorist captured!) could help Bush. It is hard to imagine what bad news is not already factored into the race.
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